November 11, 2019: Notes from the election(s) front

By Michael Regenstreif

I wrote my last Ottawa Jewish Bulletin column three days before the October 21 federal election and noted opinion polls showed the Liberal and Conservative parties virtually tied with both parties in the range of taking 132 seats – far short of the 170 seats needed to form a majority government.

While the popular vote nationally gave the Conservatives a slight edge, the way the vote broke across the country gave the Liberals a much stronger minority government than expected with 157 seats. The Conservatives took only 121.

Here in Ottawa, the Liberals won seven of eight seats – with only MP Pierre Poilievre holding Carleton for the Conservatives.

While Jews make up about one per cent of the population nationally, the Canadian Jewish News reported there are 14 ridings – mostly in the greater Toronto and Montreal areas, but also one in Winnipeg – where Jews constitute between five and 37 per cent of the population. The Liberals won 13 of those ridings – with only MP Peter Kent holding Thornhill for the Conservatives.

Among the most interesting of the election races in those 14 ridings were in the Toronto riding of York Centre, where Jewish MP Michael Levitt was running for re-election, and the Montreal riding of Mount Royal, where Jewish MP Anthony Housefather was running for re-election.

In those ridings the Conservatives targeted many Jewish voters with a direct-mail pamphlet featuring a photo of leader Andrew Scheer and a headline reading “Jewish community in Canada?” in block letters. The pamphlet painted the Conservatives as very strong and the Liberals as very weak on issues such as Israel and antisemitism.

The pamphlet didn’t seem to have the effect the Conservatives hoped for. Both Levitt – the chair of the Canada-Israel Parliamentary Group – and Housefather were re-elected with significant increases in the proportions of their votes from the 2015 election.

The direct-mail pamphlet was also sent to some Jewish voters in several other ridings across the country. I live in Ottawa West–Nepean and received one. Several other people I know in Ottawa told me they also received the pamphlet. Anecdotally, everyone I talked to who received the pamphlet was unhappy about being directly targeted as a Jew.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois’ singular defence of the province’s Bill 21 – which bans certain public servants, including teachers, police officers, prosecutors and judges from wearing such religious symbols as the Muslim hijab, the Sikh turban and Jewish kippah – led to the separatist party’s resurgence under a banner of Quebec nationalism.

However, as popular as Bill 21 is said to be in Quebec, the Liberals – the only party whose leader said his or her government might join a court case against a law for which a provincial government invoked the notwithstanding clause to suspend provisions of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms – won more seats and a higher proportion of the popular vote than the Bloc.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Likud Party leader, has failed to form a governing coalition in Israel following the September 17 election there (the second inconclusive Israeli election in 2019) and the mandate to try and form a government has been passed to Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz.

It is unlikely that Gantz will be any more successful than Netanyahu in putting together a coalition that commands at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. It is probable, as I’ve suggested before, Likud and Blue and White will form a unity government alternating the premiership or there will be a third Israeli election.

And, in the United Kingdom, voters will go to the polls on December 12 with the leadership of both major parties in the hands of highly polarizing figures.

The Conservative Party is led by Boris Johnson, whose major issue is achieving Brexit, the so-called exit of the U.K. from the European Union (while Brexit was approved by 51.9 per cent of voters in a 2016 referendum, current polling suggests support has fallen to about 44 per cent).

And the Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn, a once fringe figure whose anti-Zionism has frequently flirted with antisemitism and who has allowed antisemitism to fester in the British Labour Party.

October 28, 2019: Is this an election that no party wins?

By Michael Regenstreif

This issue of the Ottawa Jewish Bulletin goes to press before the October 21 federal election – so I’m writing this column before we know the actual results.

However, if the latest polls are close to being accurate, the results of this election might well be as un-decisive as the results of Israel’s two 2019 elections. As I write, more than a month after Israelis voted on September 17, a governing coalition is still not in place there.

A poll analysis site I’ve followed throughout the campaign is www.338Canada.com and its latest projection suggests the Liberal and Conservative parties are virtually tied with both in the range of taking about 132 seats. The strength of both major parties has diminished during the campaign while the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécois (BQ) have each gained significant strength.

With the possibility of up to six parties electing MPs, and the further possibility of one or two independent members, we may see a situation like Israel’s in which neither of the major parties has enough potential support in a minority Parliament to effectively govern.

How did we get to this possible situation? Here are some of the contributing factors.

While Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s personal brand was already wounded before the start of the campaign from various broken promises, from mixed messages on environmental and Indigenous issues, and from the SNC-Lavalin scandal, it took a major hit a week after the writ dropped with the revelation that Trudeau, as an adult, had foolishly donned blackface and brownface makeup on at least three occasions. Any ordinary candidate for Parliament would surely have been dropped by their party if such a revelation had surfaced during the campaign.

Meanwhile it came to light that Conservative leader Andrew Scheer holds dual American and Canadian citizenship. That probably wouldn’t have been too significant an issue except for the fact that in 2005 Scheer himself raised the issue of then-governor general Michaëlle Jean’s dual citizenship, and because in past election campaigns the Conservatives attacked then-Liberal leader Stéphane Dion and then-NDP leader Tom Mulcair for their dual citizenships. While Scheer now says he’s begun the process of renouncing his American citizenship, he was a member of Parliament for 15 years – and served as speaker of the House of Commons for more than four of those years – without ever revealing his dual citizenship.

There is no doubt that the NDP’s growing strength outside Quebec can be attributed to frustrations with the Trudeau Liberals and to strong performances by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in the debates and on the hustings, and to his grace under fire from racist attacks.

In Quebec, the rise of the BQ – which 338Canada predicts will win about 35 seats, up from 10 in 2015 – can be at least partially explained by support among francophone voters for Quebec’s Bill 21 banning certain civil servants from wearing religious symbols, including Jewish kippahs, Sikh turbans and Muslim hijabs. While the Liberals remain strong in multicultural Montreal, the BQ seems set to take most of the francophone ridings off the island of Montreal. The BQ has promised to protect Bill 21 from federal interference.

Speaking personally, the response to Bill 21 – which achieves its goals by use of the notwithstanding clause to override the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms – by all of the federal leaders has been highly disappointing. While Trudeau, Scheer, Singh and Green Party leader Elizabeth May have all expressed opposition to Bill 21, only Trudeau will say that the federal government “might” intervene in a court case against it. Even Trudeau’s “might” is a weak response. As I noted in my August 19 column, the phrase “a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian” is merely an empty platitude when one province can get away with removing Charter rights from certain targeted minorities.

Of course, the polls might be wrong and we might see a strong minority or even a majority government emerge after October 21. A better bet, though, is another election sooner than later (with the possibility that one or more of the parties has a new leader).

October 7, 2019: Is it Netanyahu’s time to go?

By Michael Regenstreif

“Who will form Israel’s next government?” was the headline of my column in the September 23 edition of the Ottawa Jewish Bulletin. That question is still on the table.

That column was written on September 13, four days before Israelis went to the polls on September 17 for their second election in five months; an election that was called after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could not put together a coalition of 61 Knesset seats needed to govern.

The stumbling block to a coalition after the April 9 election was former defence and foreign minister Avigdor Liberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu party, which controlled five Knesset seats, but opted not to serve in a Netanyahu-led coalition that included the haredi Orthodox parties.

That gambit only served to strengthen Liberman’s hand. His Yisrael Beiteinu party won eight seats this time and, as I write, Liberman is still refusing to put Netanyahu over top for the same reason.

Recognizing that neither Netanyahu, whose Likud party won 32 seats, or rival Benny Gantz, whose Blue and White party was slightly ahead with 33 seats, had a particularly viable path to forming a governing coalition, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin attempted to broker a unity government between the two major parties.

As I write, on September 27, that initial effort to broker a unity government has failed and Rivlin has given Netanyahu the first crack at forming a governing coalition. Unless there is some totally unexpected development, it is unlikely that Netanyahu will succeed in putting together a coalition.

If Netanyahu fails, it is likely Gantz will be given an opportunity to form a coalition, but Gantz’s odds of success appear to be no better than Netanyahu’s.

That would leave two options: forming a unity government or a third election in less than a year. At this point, few observers believe that the results of a third election would be substantially different than the first two.

But the effort to form a unity government if both leaders fail to put together a coalition might have a better chance at success than the first attempt.

Perhaps the biggest factor that stopped the first effort at forming a unity government was the status of the possible indictment of Netanyahu on three criminal corruption charges. Gantz insisted that he would not share power with Netanyahu while he is under indictment or the cloud of indictment.

Before the April election, Netanyahu had succeeded in delaying his pre-indictment hearing on the three charges until October 2 and 3. Lo those many months ago, Netanyahu assumed he would be back in power and would have been able to pass a law protecting himself from indictment. Things did not work out that way and Israeli Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit indicated he would not change the hearing dates.

With Netanyahu’s opportunity to form a coalition lasting well into October, Mandelblit’s decision on whether or not to indict him could well be at hand during the negotiation period. Although Netanyahu has vowed to stay on even if he is indicted, there is much speculation that Likud will force him to step aside if he is under indictment.

So, if another Likud leader is in place, Gantz’s objection to forming a unity government would be removed. And should the attorney general decide not to indict Netanyahu, the objection would also be irrelevant.

In power since 2009, and having served a previous term from 1996 to 1999, Netanyahu is now Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and while he is still popular with many voters, the success of the Blue and White party – which was only founded about seven months ago – must be at least partially attributed to voter fatigue with Netanyahu. At some point, in every democracy, voters want – indeed need – to change leaders. Many Israeli political commentators are saying much of the country has reached that point.

The next weeks and months could well see huge changes in Israel’s political leadership.

Meanwhile, here in Canada, we’re well into the federal election campaign, and it’s hard to turn away from the daily bus crashes of American politics. Fascinating times for political junkies like me.