By Michael Regenstreif
Since 1981, Ottawa’s Jewish population has been growing at rates far greater than Canada as a whole, and an analysis and projection by UIA Federations Canada (UIAFC) – the national body linking Canada’s Jewish federations – predicts the growth of Ottawa’s Jewish community will continue to far outpace the national average, which will be reflected in the Canadian censuses to be conducted in 2011 and 2021.
Linda Kislowicz, CEO, and Andrea Freedman, national director of planning and development of UIAFC, were in Ottawa, September 22, to present the Ottawa-oriented findings of the UIA National Task Force on Jewish Demographics to a gathering of lay leaders and senior staff of Ottawa’s various Jewish agencies and organizations. Kislowicz and Freedman were on a national tour speaking to such gatherings organized by the various Jewish federations across the country.
As Kislowicz explained, the data was based on past censuses and the projections were based on assumptions the conditions and trends – birth and death rates, immigration, migration within Canada, etc. – that led to the changes between the 1991 and 2001 censuses will continue to be relevant between 2001 and 2011 and again between 2011 and 2021.
Kislowicz said the task force believes in the accuracy of the projections, but cautioned that a multitude of social, political, economic and other factors could come into play, which could have an effect on what the censuses of 2011 and 2021 actually reveal. She added that it’s not so much the precise numbers that are important in the projections for the future, but rather the trends they show.
In 1981, the Jewish population of the Ottawa area was 9,355. It increased to 11,605 by 1991 and 13,450 in 2001. The task force predicts the Ottawa Jewish population will reach 16,230 in 2011 and then 19,279 in 2021. The projected growth of the community in the 40-year period from 1981 to 2021 will be more than 106 per cent. The task force projects the Jewish population of the entire country will have increased to 394,300 in 2021 from 313,865 in 1981, an increase of about 25 per cent in the same 40-year period.
There are a number of projections in the study that will have important implications for the community as we plan for the future – including necessary planning for greater numbers of children, youth and senior citizens. The study’s projections show steady, incremental growth in the numbers of children and youth and dramatic growth in the number of seniors in the coming years.
The growth in the number of children suggests that the capacity of the Jewish educational system in Ottawa will need to increase to meet the needs of families in the community. The study projects that the number of children aged 14 and under will rise to 3,336 in 2011 and 3,982 in 2021 from 2,690 in 2001.
Already, the Federation has placed a high priority on the Jewish educational system in Ottawa and has been working with the two schools on the amalgamation of Hillel Academy and Yitzhak Rabin High School to create an institution of the highest standard covering kindergarten through Grade 12.
With a goal of attracting an increased proportion of the community’s children to Jewish day school, and with increasing numbers of children in the community, there is potential for tremendous growth in our Jewish educational system over the coming decade.
The most dramatic growth the study projects in Ottawa’s Jewish community is in the number of seniors.
There were 795 Jews aged 65 to 74 living in Ottawa in 2001. The Jewish population in that age group is expected to have more than doubled by 2011 to 1,746 and to have almost doubled again by 2021 to 3,351.
These increases suggest the need for expanded programming aimed at an age group that remains active and engaged. They also suggest a tremendous potential for the engagement of volunteers who have reached retirement age, but are still eager to stay active and contribute to the community.
The study projects there will be 720 members of Ottawa’s Jewish community aged over 75 in 2011. This is actually a slight decrease from the 790 shown in the 2001 census. However, that number is expected to almost double between 2011 and 2021 to reach 1,324. Clearly, there will need to be long-range planning for the needs of increasing numbers of older seniors in the coming decades.
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