By Michael Regenstreif
Like most news junkies, I’ve watched many hours of television coverage and read countless news articles and commentaries about the situation that has been unfolding in Egypt since January 25, when mass protesters clamouring for democracy, and for the immediate end to President Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade-long grip on power, began to assemble in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.
Early in the protests, Mubarak vowed to finish his current term in office, but agreed not to stand for re-election in September.
This was not enough for the protesters, who remained determined not to give up as long as Mubarak remained in power. Friday, February 4 was promoted by protest organizers as Mubarak’s Day of Departure and, indeed, many media outlets that morning were predicting Mubarak would be gone by day’s end. He wasn’t.
It was widely expected that Mubarak would step down on February 10. Instead, he went on television and made a long speech in which he defiantly promised to finish his term. Suddenly, the next day, his resignation was announced, the army had assumed transitional power, and the protests in Tahrir Square, and throughout the country, turned into celebrations.
Hopefully, the process of real democratization will now begin in Egypt.
It was hard not to sympathize with the Egyptian protesters.
Mubarak was a brutal dictator these past 30 years. All of the freedoms and rights we enjoy in Western democracies like Canada, the United States and Israel were denied the Egyptians.
There was no free press, there was no free vote in elections, people faced torture and imprisonment without trial, and corruption was rampant. In a country where poverty is the norm, the Mubarak family is worth, according to estimates, upwards of $70 billion.
According to many security experts, the best hope for a positive outcome – a transition to democracy – was Mubarak’s early departure. And now that that has happened, we will watch anxiously to see how the situation develops.
The Egyptian people demonstrating in Tahrir Square seemed anxious for real democracy. Their movement did not seem to have been motivated by Islamism or anti-Zionism.
A democratic Egypt would be in Israel’s best interest and would likely maintain the state of peace – as cold as it may be – that has endured since Mubarak’s predecessor, Anwar Sadat, and Israel’s then-prime minister, Menachem Begin, signed the first Arab-Israeli peace treaty in 1979.
Israelis recognize that.
Sallai Meridor, Israel’s former ambassador to the United States, wrote in a February 10 Washington Post op-ed, “If a real democracy, committed to the values of freedom and peace, were to emerge in Egypt, Israelis would overwhelmingly support it.”
But, as I’ve written before, nothing is simple in the Middle East.
While U.S. President Barack Obama has promised the Americans will stand by Egypt as it transitions to democracy, many Israeli pundits and pro-Israel advocates have expressed deep fears that the democracy movement in Egypt could well fail and lead to a takeover by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
Almost certainly, such an outcome would be disastrous for Israel and for the peace process. And, if history is any indicator, it would also be disastrous for the Egyptian people, as an Islamist regime – witness Iran since 1979 – would be undoubtedly as brutal, if not more so, as Mubarak’s long reign has been.
It is often pointed out that Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East. As I continue to watch the events in Egypt unfold, it is with the hope that, soon, this will no longer be the case.
Iranium revisited
The threatened protests that caused Library and Archives Canada officials to cancel the Free Thinking Film Society’s screening of Iranium on January 18 did not materialize when the film finally was shown to a sold-out audience on February 6; a much larger audience, no doubt, than the film would have attracted before the Iranian Embassy turned the screening into a major media event.
If you missed the screening, Iranium is being shown for “free online for a limited time,” at iraniumthemovie.com. Not only is it a stark reminder of the threats posed by a nuclear Iran, given the unfolding events in Egypt, it is also a warning of what can happen when a democracy movement fails.
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