By Michael Regenstreif
My February 4 column centred on speculation and possible scenarios for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he works to put together a governing coalition following the January 22 election. I said then the next few weeks would be most interesting – and, indeed, they have been.
Things may have changed considerably by the time you read this as the initial deadline for forming a coalition is February 28 (a four-week extension could then be granted). But, as I write this on February 21, only one party has signed on so far: Tzipi Livni’s Hatunah Party, which holds six seats in the Knesset.
Netanyahu has announced Livni will be justice minister in the new government and has been tapped to lead peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Livni’s prime issue in the election campaign was the need to revive peace talks leading to a two-state solution, thus preserving Israel’s defining characteristics as both Jewish and democratic.
That Livni will have this role is certain to please Israel’s important allies in Washington and major European capitals – and even here in Ottawa where Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Foreign Minister John Baird, Israel’s staunchest supporters on the international stage, continue to stress the importance of a negotiated two-state solution.
The announcement of Hatunah as the first coalition partner for Netanyahu – whose Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu alliance won 31 seats – was somewhat of a surprise. A month ago, it was widely assumed the first building block of the coalition would be Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (There is a Future), a new centrist party that captured 19 seats.
One of Lapid’s central planks in the election campaign – as Barbara Crook notes in her My Israel column on page 19 – was that the haredi population assume a fair share of the burden for national service. According to reports in the Israeli media, coalition talks with Lapid, and also with Naftali Bennett’s right wing HaBayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home) party, which won 12 seats, have stalled over this issue. Apparently, Lapid and Bennett – who would seem to agree on few other issues – both feel that Netanyahu’s plan to address the haredi issue does not go far enough.
Some reports have suggested Lapid and Bennett have entered into a pact that they would only join the coalition together – a move aimed at freezing out the religious parties who have been traditional allies of Netanyahu’s Likud in previous coalitions.
Israeli coalition building can make for some fascinating bedfellows. Beyond the haredi issue, Lapid and Bennett do not appear to be natural allies. Will their pact hold as coalition deadlines come closer? Will Netanyahu agree to bend on the haredi issue and meet the demands of Lapid and Bennett? Or will he look to other alternatives to come up with the 61 seats he needs to stay in power?
And, if Netanyahu bends on the haredi issue to clear the way for Lapid and Bennett to join the coalition, it’s hard to imagine Bennett – who categorically rejects a two-state solution with the Palestinians – sitting at the cabinet table with Livni.
A workable scenario for Israel to move forward on many important dossiers would be for Lapid to find a way to join the coalition. Then bring in Labor with its 15 seats and Kadima with its two and Netanyahu’s got a 73-seat coalition of the centre-right to centre-left that is not beholden to the religious parties. Possible personality clashes aside, Lapid, Livni, Labor Party leader Shelly Yachimovich and Kadima leader Shaul Mofaz would seem to be natural allies on most of the important issues facing Israel.
But nothing is ever that simple in Israeli politics. There are strong factions within Netanyahu’s Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu alliance, which would be more much naturally allied to Bennett’s HaBayit HaYehudi on the right.
Something will have to give, one way or another, if Netanyahu is to form a coalition. The alternative is new elections much sooner than anyone wants them. The situation over the next few weeks remains fascinating.
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